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Special TNPSC 30 Dec 2007

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TNPSC 2003

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Likely Cut Off

We shall try to find out what will be the number of correct answers (out of 200) one has to score

1. To be called for Interview - This is not going to be of much use. TNPSC is going to call 580 candidates for interview.

2. To get selected - this is the million dollar (or 200 mark) question

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We base our assumption on the 2003 and 2005 Scenario. however there are a lot of differences between TNPSC 2003, TNPSC 2005 and TNPSC 2007

Let us Analyse the differences one by one

Now if you consider the TNPSC 2003 Scenario, 610 candidates were called for Interview and we have their marks for analysis. Of these 610, the various categories got the seat as per the 69 % Community Reservation and 33 % Women's Quota. We analyse the marks obtained by the candidates in the following table

Legend

• FMI         - First Mark among those called for Interview in 2003 TNPSC

• LMI         - Last Mark among those called for Interview in 2003 TNPSC

• FMI-LMI   - Difference between the first mark and last mark among those called for Interview in 2003

• NCI         - Number of persons called for Interview in 2003 TNPSC

• dM/dC    - dM/dC - a notation used in calculus - difference in mark per candidate

• NS2005   - Number of Seats in 2005

• PD2005   - Probable difference between the first mark and last mark among those likely to be selected in 2005

• PFMark   - Probable first mark . This is arrived by adding the Variation Mark to the First mark last time

• All the value assume one mark for a Question and 200 Marks for 200 Questions. This is done for your convenience, as the "net" usually depends on the number of correct questions and not on the marks. However the actual marks given for a question is 1.5 and the final calculation is - 300 Marks for Theory and 40 Marks for Interview.

•  

We see that those marks are for those who were called for Interview (and not for those who were selected - the cut off for final selection will be obviously high). About 610 candidates would have been called for Interview. Now the Final Selection list needs double (in fact slightly more than double) number of Candidates. So we proceed to find the cut off mark. The process followed is as follows.

1. In TNPSC 2003, The first mark by a Open General Candidate is 174.

2. In TNPSC 2003, The last mark by a Open General Candidate is 161.

3. In TNPSC 2003, 132 Candidates were between Marks 161 to 174.

4. In TNPSC 2003, So there was a candidate every 0.098 Marks

5. In TNPSC 2005, there are 281 vacancies for Open General.

6. We assume the first mark as 181. (174 is the first mark last time. This year we assume that there will be 7 marks more. Hence PFMark 2005 = FMI + Variation Mark, ie Probable First Mark in 2005 will be First Mark last time + Variation Mark.

7. Now assuming that there is a difference of 0.098 marks per candidate, if the first mark is 181, the mark of the candidate with Rank 281 in Open General will be 153. Hence that is taken as the cut off.

8. Similarly the marks are worked for all categories also

 Hence we can assume that if a candidate secures the same mark, he/she is very sure of selection. So we can assume that the following cut off is a safe limit for being selected even if your interview performance is not up to the mark.   

Few points, which have not been taken into consideration, in the above calculations :

1. The cut off can be lower than the predicted value because:

   • We have assumed (just assumption) that the First Mark for BC General is 181. But in practice, the BC candidates who have scored from 153 to 181 would have been selected in the General Turn itself. Hence the 272 BC Candidates will be selected from mark 153 onwards (and not from 181). To avoid this fallacy we have calculated the dm/dC value from the first mark by a BC Student in 2003 (174, which gives a FMI-LMI of 19) and not the first mark in BC Category in 2003 (161, which would give a FMI- LMI of 6). Now if you compare, in the former case, you have a dm/dC value of 0.148 and in the latter, you have a dm/dC value of 0.046. Thus the PD 2005 will be 40 and 12.75  respectively. So the cut off will be 181-40 ie 141 in the former case and 153-12.75 ie 140.25 (140) in the latter case. Thus the cut off may vary by one mark.

   • Similarly the 182 MBC General Candidates will be selected from Mark 153 (and not from 179) as we have assumed in the table above. Hence the cut off will go down. To avoid this fallacy we have calculated the dm/dC value from the first mark by a MBC Student in 2003 (172, which gives a FMI-LMI of 20) and not the first mark in MBC Category in 2003 (161, which would give a FMI- LMI of 9). Now if you compare, in the former case, you have a dm/dC value of 0.232 and in the latter, you have a dm/dC value of 0.105. Thus the PD 2005 will be 42 and 19.04  respectively. So the cut off will be 179-42 ie 137 in the former case and 153-19 ie 134 in the latter case. Thus the cut off may vary (go down) by few (in this case 3) marks.

   • Similarly, you can work for other values and there is a marginal difference of one or two marks, which are not of much significance because of another source of marks (interview) that is to be added to this.

   • This variation will be more for MBC than BC and more for SC than MBC. Similary this difference will be more in the Women's Quota Also

2. The cut off can be higher than the predicted value because:

   • We have assumed that the marks are distributed in an uniform fashion.

   • In reality there shall be clustering of marks.

   • The clusters that usually occur in TNPSC are

     • Those who were Well prepared and NO careless mistake

     • Those who were Well prepared , made some careless mistakes

     • Those who Read for 4 months for this exam only and those who prepared while working as Contract Medical Consultants (who are not well prepared)

     • Those who Read for 3 months while working else where

     • Those who Read for a total of 30 hours only

     • Those who Did not read, applied because the form is very cheap and just came to meet every one

   • Because the number of seats is very high, (401 seats in General Category alone), all those in the first three clusters mentioned above will be well above the cut off range. Hence, clusters will not affect selection process. However, the small mistake will prove costly when you go for counseling as one rank in your category will push your rotation roster by 8 spots. In short A single wrong question is probably what is enough to make you go up (or down) by as much as 40 ranks in the seniority list.

   •  . However, we have taken the upper limit, because we

3. The cut off will be almost same as out assumptions because

   • There are few factors that pull up the cut off and few that pull down the cut off.

4. We can give only the probable cut off for Final Selection because

   • There is only a cut off mark for selection in Theory.

   • The Final Selection depends on the performance (or lack of it) in the Interview by the candidate

5.  

You can get selected even if you score less than the marks given above if

1. You perform well in interview

2. Many people who have got good marks (better performance than you in TNPSC 2005) get seat in AIPG 2006 and TNPG 2006

Hence it can be assumed that candidates with the following cut off can also "squeeze" through the waiting list. But you may never know the status of the waiting list.

A more detailed (complicated) analysis incorporating more factors (like marks secured in TNPSC 2003, difference between the first and last mark in a category, importance of orals etc) will be presented soon. Calculations using mathematical equations and other analytical models are going on in our Statistical department.

All the best

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